Rugby WC Seeding Scenarios

The seeding's for the 2015 Rugby World Cup will be taken from the IRB rankings on December 3rd. The important bands are 1-4 and 5-8. The Top 4 don't have to play each other until at least the quarter finals and more likely the semi-finals. Teams seeded 5-8 will also avoid each other until at least the quarter finals while teams outside the Top 8 will have a hard job to qualify for the quarter finals as they'll have 2 higher seeded teams in their group.

Despite the perceived complexity around the IRB ranking system, it's pretty straightforward to model the scenarios required by each team to achieve any particular ranking. We've done that and here are some scenarios for teams "on the bubble". 

England are guaranteed Top 8 and can make the Top 4 if any of the following scenarios happen

Band A (1-4)

1. England beat South Africa by more than 15 points AND England beat New Zealand by more than 15 points
2. England beat New Zealand by more than 15 points AND Samoa beat France AND Wales do not beat New Zealand by more than 15 points
3. England beat South Africa AND England beat New Zealand AND Australia do not beat Italy AND Wales beat Australia
4. England draw with South Africa AND England beat New Zealand by more than 15 points AND Australia do not beat Italy AND Wales beat Australia
5. England beat South Africa by more than 15 points AND England beat New Zealand AND Wales beat Australia by more than 15 AND Samoa beat France
6. England beat New Zealand by more than 15 points AND England beat South Africa AND Wales beat Australia by more than 15 AND Samoa beat France

Band B (5-8)

All other scenarios result in England being seeded in the 5-8 band

Wales have it all to play for as they potentially could end up in band A,B or C. They need at least one victory to stay in the Top 8.

Band A (1-4)

1. Wales beat New Zealand by more than 15 points AND Wales beat Australia AND New Zealand or South Africa beat England AND Samoa beat France
2. Wales beat Australia AND New Zealand (one by more than 15 points) AND Italy beat Australia by more than 15 points AND Samoa beat France by more than 15 points

Band B (5-8)

1. Wales beat New Zealand
2. Wales beat Australia
3. Wales draw with Australia or New Zealand AND Australia beat Italy 

Band C (9-12)

1. Wales lose to New Zealand AND Wales lose or draw to Australia AND Ireland beat or draw with Argentina  

Scotland cannot end up with a Top 8 seeding and will be in Band C (9-12)

Ireland cannot claim a Top 4 seeding and their Top 8 status is on the line versus Argentina

Band B (5-8)

1. Ireland beat Argentina
2. Ireland draw with Argentina AND France beat Samoa AND Australia beat Italy

Band C (9-12)

1. Argentina beat or draw with Ireland AND Wales beat New Zealand or Australia AND Samoa draw or beat France             

France can win or lose against Samoa and still sit in the top band of seeds, but also the second set

Band A (1-4)

1. France beat Samoa
2. Samoa beat France by less than 15 points AND South Africa beat England And England beat New Zealand by less than 15 points AND Wales do not beat both Australia and New Zealand by more than 15 points.

Band B (5-8)

1. Samoa beat France AND England beat South Africa and New Zealand AND Australia beat Italy
2. Samoa beat France AND Wales beat New Zealand and Australia AND England beat and draw with either New Zealand or Australia

Samoa can become the first tier two nation to occupy a top eight spot since the rankings have been  introduced in 2003

Band B (5-8)

1. Samoa beat France
2. France beat Samoa AND Argentina beat Ireland
3. France beat Samoa AND New Zealand AND Australia beat Wales AND Australia beat Italy

Band C (9-12)

1. France beat Samoa AND Ireland draw or beat Argentina 
2. France beat Samoa AND Wales  beat or draw with New Zealand or Australia

Italy can move to top 8 with a winning performance against Australia and other results to go in there favour

Band B (5-8)

1. Italy beat Australia by more than 15 points AND Argentina beat or draw with Ireland AND France beat Samoa
2. Italy beat Australia by more than 15 points AND France beat Samoa AND Wales lose to both Australia and New Zealand

Like I said, it's very straightforward!!

Finally, our predictions for the Top 8 Rugby World Cup seeds are;

1. New Zealand
2. Australia
3. South Africa
4. France
5. England
6. Ireland
7. Argentina
8. Samoa
9. Wales
10. Scotland
11. Italy
12. Tonga