Rugby WC Seeding Scenarios

The seeding's for the 2015 Rugby World Cup will be taken from the IRB rankings on December 3rd. The important bands are 1-4 and 5-8. The Top 4 don't have to play each other until at least the quarter finals and more likely the semi-finals. Teams seeded 5-8 will also avoid each other until at least the quarter finals while teams outside the Top 8 will have a hard job to qualify for the quarter finals as they'll have 2 higher seeded teams in their group.

Despite the perceived complexity around the IRB ranking system, it's pretty straightforward to model the scenarios required by each team to achieve any particular ranking. We've done that and here are some scenarios for teams "on the bubble". 

England are guaranteed Top 8 and can make the Top 4 if any of the following scenarios happen

Band A (1-4)

1. England beat South Africa by more than 15 points AND England beat New Zealand by more than 15 points
2. England beat New Zealand by more than 15 points AND Samoa beat France AND Wales do not beat New Zealand by more than 15 points
3. England beat South Africa AND England beat New Zealand AND Australia do not beat Italy AND Wales beat Australia
4. England draw with South Africa AND England beat New Zealand by more than 15 points AND Australia do not beat Italy AND Wales beat Australia
5. England beat South Africa by more than 15 points AND England beat New Zealand AND Wales beat Australia by more than 15 AND Samoa beat France
6. England beat New Zealand by more than 15 points AND England beat South Africa AND Wales beat Australia by more than 15 AND Samoa beat France

Band B (5-8)

All other scenarios result in England being seeded in the 5-8 band

Wales have it all to play for as they potentially could end up in band A,B or C. They need at least one victory to stay in the Top 8.

Band A (1-4)

1. Wales beat New Zealand by more than 15 points AND Wales beat Australia AND New Zealand or South Africa beat England AND Samoa beat France
2. Wales beat Australia AND New Zealand (one by more than 15 points) AND Italy beat Australia by more than 15 points AND Samoa beat France by more than 15 points

Band B (5-8)

1. Wales beat New Zealand
2. Wales beat Australia
3. Wales draw with Australia or New Zealand AND Australia beat Italy 

Band C (9-12)

1. Wales lose to New Zealand AND Wales lose or draw to Australia AND Ireland beat or draw with Argentina  

Scotland cannot end up with a Top 8 seeding and will be in Band C (9-12)

Ireland cannot claim a Top 4 seeding and their Top 8 status is on the line versus Argentina

Band B (5-8)

1. Ireland beat Argentina
2. Ireland draw with Argentina AND France beat Samoa AND Australia beat Italy

Band C (9-12)

1. Argentina beat or draw with Ireland AND Wales beat New Zealand or Australia AND Samoa draw or beat France             

France can win or lose against Samoa and still sit in the top band of seeds, but also the second set

Band A (1-4)

1. France beat Samoa
2. Samoa beat France by less than 15 points AND South Africa beat England And England beat New Zealand by less than 15 points AND Wales do not beat both Australia and New Zealand by more than 15 points.

Band B (5-8)

1. Samoa beat France AND England beat South Africa and New Zealand AND Australia beat Italy
2. Samoa beat France AND Wales beat New Zealand and Australia AND England beat and draw with either New Zealand or Australia

Samoa can become the first tier two nation to occupy a top eight spot since the rankings have been  introduced in 2003

Band B (5-8)

1. Samoa beat France
2. France beat Samoa AND Argentina beat Ireland
3. France beat Samoa AND New Zealand AND Australia beat Wales AND Australia beat Italy

Band C (9-12)

1. France beat Samoa AND Ireland draw or beat Argentina 
2. France beat Samoa AND Wales  beat or draw with New Zealand or Australia

Italy can move to top 8 with a winning performance against Australia and other results to go in there favour

Band B (5-8)

1. Italy beat Australia by more than 15 points AND Argentina beat or draw with Ireland AND France beat Samoa
2. Italy beat Australia by more than 15 points AND France beat Samoa AND Wales lose to both Australia and New Zealand

Like I said, it's very straightforward!!

Finally, our predictions for the Top 8 Rugby World Cup seeds are;

1. New Zealand
2. Australia
3. South Africa
4. France
5. England
6. Ireland
7. Argentina
8. Samoa
9. Wales
10. Scotland
11. Italy
12. Tonga

Sportsrisq's January Newsletter

Tour Update: January

Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship – 26th to 29th Jan

For the first time this year all of the world’s top 4 players will lock horns. They will also be joined by Tiger Woods and a full European Tour field to make for an exciting championship. With the greens amongst some of the fastest on the European Tour (12 to 12.5 on the Stimpmeter) and generally pretty hard as well there is a premium on driving distance around this course more so than others on the 2012 schedule. In a similar vein to the Masters it is typically the bigger hitters that perform best at the HSBC Abu Dhabi Championships. The bigger hitters are able to approach the greens with more lofted clubs which allows them to hold the ball on the testing greens more easily. This can be demonstrated by the correlation of finishing positions and average driving distances in the championship over the last 6 years. The average driving distance of players finishing in the top 10 finishing position in comparison to the players finishing between 40^th and 50^th is significant.

Year	1st - 10th Average Driving Distance (Yards)	40th - 50th Average Driving Distance (Yards)	Difference (Yards)	Total Difference for Week (Yards)
2011	283.85	277.34	6.51	364.56
2010	284.81	284.94	-0.13	-7.28
2009	293.2	284.42	8.78	491.68
2008	282.01	278.42	3.59	201.04
2007	286.97	275.48	11.49	643.44
2006	288.76	279.13	9.63	539.28
Average	286.60	279.96	6.65	372.12

In all but one year the top 10 drove the ball further than those finishing down the field between 40^th and 50^th position (some of the worst performing players to make the cut.) In 2007 players finishing between 40^th and 50^th had an average of 643 yards further left in on their approach shots for the week than the top 10 players.

Contract Structuring with the Abu Dhabi Championship

During the off-season many sponsors have structured and restructured contracts in order to keep their best brand ambassadors and attract new ones. From our experience we have seen that performance driven bonuses are as popular as ever. This is firstly due to the fact that they are very appealing for the players if they feel confident about the upcoming season. Secondly, for the sponsors, bonus structures are an excellent way to incentivise great play and even shape a golfer’s schedule for a relatively small fee.

There are a number of ways to incentivise the world’s best players to start the season quickly and bonuses are one of the most effective tools for sponsors to use. For example;

$1,000,000 bonus for winning both the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship and the Masters could be covered as below;

Golfer	Rate	Cost of Cover
Tiger Woods	1.7%	$17,000
Rory McIlroy	1.3%	$13,000
Luke Donald	0.4%	$4,000
Lee Westwood	0.4%	$4,000

Multiple wins are common for the world’s top players during a single season. A $1,000,000 bonus would be an excellent payday for the player but will also have phenomenal advantages for sponsors. By offering larger bonuses for certain tournaments, sponsors can begin to dictate the tournaments that they would like to see their players participate in. This lets sponsors manage their brand exposure more specifically. Creativity with contract structuring allows sponsors to reach key demographics and specific geographical areas much more successfully.

When structuring bonuses it is important to make them realistic. For example, 3 of the 4 Major winners last season were multiple winners on tour. A $1,000,000 bonus for multiple wins including a Major Championship would be attractive for players as it is an attainable bonus trigger. Considering that the specific bonuses above could be added to Luke Donald and Lee Westwood’s contracts for only $4,000, it shows what great value this type of creative bonus structuring provides. It is no surprise that a number of our clients are particularly keen on these bonus structures.

Player Focus: Luke Donald

Many have argued that the next couple of seasons are Luke Donald’s best opportunity to clinch a Major. There is a 54% chance that he will win at least one Major over the next 2 seasons but he is only the 3^rd most likely golfer to complete this feat. Woods and McIlroy both have probabilities of over 70% each of winning a Major in either 2012, 2013 or both.

Despite having a high chance (in golfing terms) of completing this goal, recent statistics aren’t entirely in Luke Donald’s favour. Not since 2007 has someone who finished the year as world number one gone on to win a Major Championship the following year (Tiger Woods, U.S. Open.) 2007 was also the last time that the player that lead the scoring average on the PGA or European Tour went on to win a Major the following year (also Tiger Woods.)

However, his ball striking and putting statistics are phenomenal as he led the money lists in both the United States and in Europe in 2011. His hard work and support from Dave Alred has furthered his steady improvement. Each year Donald’s probability of winning a Major has improved greatly as shown below. In 5 of the last 7 years Donald’s chance of winning a Major in the following season has increased. As we look forward to 2012 he is probably best suited to the 3 Major Championhips being played outside of Georgia. The demanding setups of the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island (U.S. PGA Championship) and the Lake Course at The Olympic Club (U.S. Open) are each over 2.5% more likely than Augusta to provide Donald with a Major victory in 2012.

Luke Donald’s major sponsors would have found that the rate of cover for his Major Bonuses has increased fivefold over 7 years. Furthermore, as he has risen up the world rankings the size of his bonuses would have increased considerably as well. Luke Donald is clearly now a much more expensive player to sponsor. Locking in a 3 year rate during the 2009 season would have saved over $425,00 for a $1,000,000 Major Win Bonus. It is just another example of where working pro actively to manage future bonuses is highly advantageous. It is exactly this type of foresight that Sportsrisq can provide and combined with our sharp rates is exactly how we can save sponsors a lot of money when it comes to covering bonus contracts.

Sportsrisq's December Golf Newsletter

Tour Update: December

Dubai World Championships - 8th - 11th December

The season ending Race to Dubai will determine the final positions for the European Order of Merit in what has been a stellar season for the players on the European Tour. There is still a lot to play for as a shuffle of positions amongst the places in the bonus pool more than likely.

Player	Total 2011 Prize Money	Dubai World Championship Prize Money	Bonus Pool
Luke Donald	€ 3,856,394	€ 922,645	€ 1,500,000
Rory McIlroy	€ 3,066,606	€ 615,094	€ 125,000
Martin Kaymer	€ 2,830,264	€ 359,831	€ 750,000
Charl Schwartzel	€ 2,265,525	€ 276,793	€ 600,000
Lee Westwood	€ 2,004,482	€ 221,434	€ 525,000
Anders Hansen	€ 1,738,892	€ 180,041	€ 450,000
Sergio Garcia	€ 1,580,748	€ 160,540	€ 412,500
Thomas Björn	€ 1,517,392	€ 149,468	€ 375,000
Simon Dyson	€ 1,444,558	€ 138,396	€ 337,500
Darren Clarke	€ 1,379,498	€ 127,325	€ 300,000

Apart from Luke Donald, Rory McIlroy is the only other player with a chance of winning the Race to Dubai. McIlroy will not only have to win the Dubai World Championship but hope that Donald finishes outside of the top 9 as well. A second place finish won’t be enough no matter how Donald plays. After round 1 there is a 26% chance that Luke Donald will relinquish his position at the top of the European Order of Merit.

If Sergio Garcia were to win the Dubai World Championship he could rise as high as 5^th in the Race to Dubai if Westwood finishes worse than 2^nd. There is a 13% chance of this happening.

At the other end of the spectrum on the European Tour a number of players have been battling to keep their card. Sportsrisq would like to congratulate our brand ambassador Gareth Maybin for securing his card on the bubble after shooting a closing round 69 in the UBS Hong Kong Open.

2012 Sponsorship Deals

Shift in Power

All sponsors in golf are looking to generate maximum exposure from their golf sponsorships. Over the last couple of years we have witnessed the form of the Big 5 drift. Woods, Mickelson, Goosen, Els and Singh have dominated most of Major Championship golf over the last decade but between them have only won a single major over the last 3 seasons. Mickelson has fallen out of the top 10 in the OWGR and the others all fell out the top 50 during 2011.

Sportsrisq Sponsorship Index

Rank	Change	Player	Sportsrisq Sponsorship Index
1	-	Rory McIlroy	554
2	-	Tiger Woods	541
3	-	Luke Donald	491
4	-	Martin Kaymer	271
5	-	Webb Simpson	269
6	+1	Dustin Johnson	257
7	-1	Jason Day	253
8	-	Charl Schwartzel	230
9	+3	Sergio Garcia	193
10	-1	Nick Watney	190
11	+2	Adam Scott	181
12	+3	Lee Westwood	174
13	-3	Keegan Bradley	171
14	-3	Phil Mickelson	146
15	-1	Rickie Fowler	141
16	+1	K.J. Choi	133
17	+1	Matt Kuchar	127
18	+1	Justin Rose	117
19	+1	Y.E. Yang	117
20	-4	Tom Lewis	115

Lee Westwood has climbed up the SSI as his commitment to play on the PGA Tour and European Tour next year has given his sponsors a greater global exposure. His minimum requirement to play in at least 12 tournaments in Europe and then spend the rest of his time on the PGA Tour will help UPS, Dunlop, Ping and Audemars Piguet benefit from exposure to a much larger audience.

Tiger Woods’ excellent performance in the Chevron World Challenge has boosted his SSI rating considerably. His performances have also increased the cost of covering his bonuses for next season from 6% to 16%.

Breakthrough Players

This season has seen a number of breakthrough players generate widespread exposure for brands that are new to golf sponsorship or have smaller marketing budgets. This strategy of backing younger players has been highly successful for Jumeirah, Greenway Medical Technologies and Dow to name a few. All of these sponsors have benefitted from sponsorships that were structured at a low cost but have seen their players perform exceptionally this year. The graph below shows the changes in prices for the 3 Breakthrough Major Winners of 2012 and also for Webb Simpson, the highest placed rookie on the PGA Tour Money List for 2011.

Sponsors of ‘Breakthrough Players’ have to be aware that price changes can have major implications on the expected value of the bonus payouts that they are exposed to so it’s important to lock in the lower cost of cover early.

Best Value for 2012?

Another great example of covering at the right time is Rolex who backed Tiger Woods to return to winning ways before the Presidents Cup. They benefitted from structuring the contract whilst his cost of cover was at an all-time low. In October (when the deal was publicised) the rate to cover Tiger Woods’ bonuses for the 2012 Masters was 6%. Currently it would cost 16%. Historically this price has been as high as 60% so insuring at 10% of the historical high was incredibly astute.

Player Focus

Dustin Johnson

With a 3^rd place finish in the US PGA Championship in 2010 and a 2^nd place finish in the British Open in 2011, Dustin Johnson has a record of performing well in big tournaments. A successful knee operation has removed the pain that aggravated him at the end of the 2011 season. This should allow him to start the 2012 season quickly. Despite a couple of average performances at the Masters in recent years his natural right to left ball flight and length off the tee make him a major contender for the first major of the year.

As we look forward to 2012 and the year’s first Major the graph above shows a strong correlation between driving distance and finishing position for the top 80 players at the 2011 Masters. Dustin Johnson, one of the longest on Tour will be hoping that there is also a very strong correlation in 2012.